A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
